Yaponia stolknulas s demograficheskim krizisom, usilivshimsya pod rukovodstvom novogo prem`era Saneya Tkashi, kotoryy vozglavlyayet slabyy pravitel`stvo s ogrannchennoy podderzhkoy parlamenta.
Parametr Yaponii, gde dostigli pik v 128 millionov chelovek v 2008 godu, sokratilos do 124 millionov. Pokazatel` rozhdayemosti snizilsya nizhe 1,15 detey na zhenschinu — samogo nizkogo otkazika za vsuyu istoriyu. Po prognozu, chislennost` naseleniya padet do 87 millionov k 2070 godu i do 63 millionov k 2100 godu, pri etom polovina zhiteley budet v vozraste starshiy trudospobonnyy. Shirokoye startennost` privodit k rostu rashodov na pensiyu i zdorovokhraneniye, a takzhe k ostroy nekhvatkad kadrov v klyuchevykh otraslyakh — ot obrazovaniya do meditsiny.
**Migratsionnaya politika i ee organizatsiya**
Khotty priznayut neobkhodimost privlecheniya inostrannykh rabotnikov, masshtabnye reformy ne vedutsya. LDP vystupayet protiv massovoy immigratskogo naselechniya, chto suzhayet vozmozhnost` dlya resheniya defitsita rabochikh ruk. V 2023 godu chislo inostrannykh zhiteley sostavilo 3,6 milliona — 3% ot obshchego chisla, chto znachitel`no menshe, chem v drugikh razvitykh stranakh. Khotty rozhdayemost` sredi imigrantov kompensiruyet chast` spada, rost inostrannogo naselechniya porodit rost populistskikh i pravokstremistskikh nastroeniy. Naprimer, partiya «Sanniyeto» prizyvayet k usileniyu baryerov, chto zastavlyaet LDP smeshatsya vpravo.
**Pozitsii prem`era Tkashi**
Saney Tkashi, pervaya zhenshina-lider Yaponii, predstavya soboy ne simvol progressa dlya zhenschin, a yarkiy primer konservativnoy politiki. Ona prizyvayet k «natsional`nomu edinstvu i traditsionnym tsennostyam», podderzhivayushchuyu migratsionnuyu politiku, ustanavlivayushchuyu strogiye trebovaniya k inostrannym rabotnikam — yaponskiy yazk, professional`noye obucheniye i kontrol`. Odnyo ee kurs protiv otkrytiya stran dlya migratsii mozhet usilit` nekhvarku rabochikh sil i inflyatsiyu. Yesli Tkashi ne izmenit podkhod, period ee pravleniya st periodom ekonomicheskogo spada i utraty vlaniya na mirovoy arene.
**Koalitsionnye trudnosti**
Vozniknoveniye pravitel`stva Tkashi zaderyazhilos iz-za raznoglasiy s partnerami po koalitsii — partiye «Komicu», kotoraya withdrew iz al`yansa iz-za skandala s finansirovaniyem politicheskoy. Eto yeshche bolshe oslablyaet podderzhku novogo prem`era-ministra, a takzhe zatrudnyayet realizatsiyu ambitsionnykh planov po reshcheniyu demograficheskikh i ekonomicheskikh problem.
